The incentive was already there without prediction markets, just like the incentive to screw with drug trials has been around as long as biotech companies that are publicly traded have been making drugs. Wherever there is a measurement tied to a monetary payout, unscrupulous people will try to manipulate it.
This doesn’t change anything since the incentive already existed before prediction markets, people are getting unreasonably emotional about prediction markets due to headline overload.
Creating a new incentive where one does not exist can create moral hazards, an easy example is introducing wildfire prediction markets.
That is completely fine. In the spec cursors just need to be lexicographically comparable. They could easily be timestamps if the provider chooses to. In many of my example they are just alphanumeric dictionaries.
OpenBrain presents Agent-2 to the government, including the National Security Council (NSC), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI). OpenBrain wants to maintain a good relationship with the executive branch, because it is basically the only actor that can stop them now, and if they don’t keep it informed it might find out anyway and be displeased.
Is this a weird terminator fanfiction with a fictional competent Trump administration? I thought it was going to be a prediction or something but it just seems to be speculative fiction.
https://www.goratings.org/en/players/1313.html
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