Efficiency is not that that important in an era of negative price electricity.
Synfuel made just from air and electricity is doable (both water and carbon dioxyde can be extracted from the atmosphere). And with 10% of what's spend on IA we'd be way out of the lab...
Thankfully there are military budgets (synfuel makes sense on a nuclear carrier)
Is it still competitive?
Can we realistically get lots of it, like ever?